The U.S. State Department just released the February 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the fifth Visa Bulletin for the FY2011 fiscal year and first for the calendar year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the major retrogression in family-based visa numbers, accompanied by the continued slow forward movement across the employment-based categories.  The retrogression in family-based categories is a surprise following recent comments by the State Department that family-based categories (especially 2A) should continue to move forward.

Summary of the February 2011 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the February 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by only one (1) week to July 1, 2006, while EB-2 India remains (again, for a number of consecutive months) unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by only one (1) week to April 1, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to January 1, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by three (3) weeks to February 22, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by almost three (3) months to July 8, 2003 and EB-3 Philippines moves forward by one (1) week to April 1, 2005.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China.   It moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 2003 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks to February 22, 2002 for India .

Summary of the February 2011 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the February 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at January 1, 2005.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks to January 22, 1993.  FB1 Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to August 1, 1994.
• FB2A remains unchanged across the board:  ROW, China, India and Philippines are unchanged January 1, 2008;  Mexico is also unchanged at April 1, 2005.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remain unchanged at April 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to July 1, 1992 and FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) weeks to June 1, 1999.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions and No (or Small) Change in Family-based Priority Dates

The slow forward movement across many employment categories continues, as expected, although the movement in the employment-based categories may be very disappointing to many, especially in the the EB-2 India category which did not move at all this month, for a number of consecutive months.  The slightly positive news is that EB-3 India moved forward by three weeks (compared to only one week in the prior month).

As expected this month, after the surprising January 2011 Visa Bulletin, the family-based second preference category (FB2A) remains unchanged.  Prior to the January 2011 Visa Bulletin, it was widely expected that FB2A would  continue to move forward, and to even  be current by the February 2011 Visa Bulletin (see our comments on Charles Oppenheim’s predictions from September 2010).  However, FB2A retrogressed significantly from August 2010 to January 2008 in the January 2011 Visa Bulletin last month, and this month the FB2A category remains unchanged.

What Are the Reasons for the FB2A Category Lack of Forward Movement?

Simply stated, the reason for the retrogression is high demand, caused by the prompt forward movement of family-based categories over the past months.   Last month’s Visa Bulletin showed a significant retrogression in the FB2A category, following a number of months of forward movement.  Those past forward movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand received in recent months.   This, according to the State Department, has required the retrogression of many Family preference cut-off dates for January 2011 in an effort to hold number use within the various numerical limits.

Unfortunately, according to the State Department, further retrogressions (or lack of movement) cannot be ruled out should demand continue at the current levels.  Please see our analysis of the reasons behind the retrogression and the lack of movement in the FB2A category.

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