About H.R. 3012

H.R. 3012, the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act was introduced on September 22, 2011 by Rep. Chaffetz (R-UT) and its goal is to eliminate the employment-based per-country cap entirely by fiscal year 2015 and to raise the family-sponsored per-country cap from 7% to 15%.    If enacted into law, this Act would directly benefit the very high number of highly-skilled applicants for immigrant visa from countries such as India and allow them to obtain an approval much earlier (we are talking many years).

The current law places a limit so that immigrants from a country can obtain no more than 7% of the 140,000 employment-based immigrant visas (or green cards) issued annually.   That cap applies equally to all countries, regardless of the country’s population and creates an imbalance and backlogs for larger countries such as India and China.

H.R. 3012 Clears the House of Representatives; More Work Remains Ahead

On November 29, 2011, the House passed H.R. 3012 by a vote of 389-15 with no additional amendments. The measure now moves on to the Senate for consideration.  A brief reminder:  the fact that H.R. 3012 has been approved by the House does not make it a law.   To become a law, the Act must be passed, in identical form, by both the House and the Senate, and then signed into law by the President.

Many would expect that the Act to pass the Senate quickly.   Unfortunately, indications from here in Washington, DC suggest otherwise.  What is the hold-up?   The answer is politics.   After the House passed the Act on November 29th, Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa, host of the upcoming presidential election caucuses, promptly placed a hold on the bill, which is expected to have broad support from his Senate colleagues.

Conclusion

While it should be encouraging to see that H.R. 3012 cleared the House, the Act is still far from being a law.  With the presidential election politics, the Act may not be taken up by the Senate for some time.   Even then, we do not know if it will be passed by the full Senate in identical form.   As a result, much work remains to be done for the Act to become a law.    We will continue to monitor developments on this legislation and provide updates.    Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can be of any assistance or answer any questions.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points

EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa bulletins.  A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of 2012.   EB-3 China and, specifically, India, will move very slowly and this category is “ridiculously” oversubscribed — very long times to be expected.   Family-based dates will advance gradually.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, each green card application case is “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children).  As a result, and in recognition of the fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for and applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3 visa numbers are expected to remain oversubscribed and to move slowly forward.

However, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few months.

With respect to family-based cases, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the demand, especially in the FB2 category has exceeded his expectations after the sharp forward movement at the end of 2010.   This sharp forward movement has generated a significant demand for FB2 preference category visas and he has had to retrogress significantly in order to control demand.   He indicated that slow forward movement is expected.

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.  These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins.  It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further.   Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins.     Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012.   He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.

EB-3 China.  This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.

EB-3 India.  Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow.    This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so).   This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available.   Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.

EB-3 India and China – 70 Years Wait for Green Card?

There have been a number of recent articles and comments on the possibility that Indian and Chinese applicants who are in the EB-3 category may be facing a 70-year wait to obtain a visa number.   Mr. Oppenheim’s reaction:  that this is “plausible”.

As a background, according to a recent report, since the majority of employment-based green card filings are from India and China, the current per-country limit (which restricts the number of green cards awarded to any country to 7% of the total) places a ceiling on how many EB-3 green cards can be approved every year.   For Indians, the limit of EB-3 green cards that can be issued every year is fewer than 3,000.    The estimate (generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim) of the pending EB-3 cases is somewhere around 210,000 (primary EB-3 candidates plus family members).   As a result, a simple calculation shows that it may take around 70 years for an EB-3 India candidate to obtain a green card.

Unfortunately, the estimates were generally confirmed by Mr. Oppenheim who, while not specifically endorsing the 70-year wait period, confirmed that EB-3 India will be very slow going forward due to very heavy demand.  EB-3 China is in a very similar situation, even though the demand numbers are proportionally lower.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was also able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of the family-based visa numbers over the next few months.  Unlike the employment-based visa numbers, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that the family-based visa numbers are likely to be fairly predictable.

FB 2A.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, this family-based category has shown a high demand as a result of the sudden forward movement at the end of 2010 and, as a result, had to be retrogressed.   Now that the demand is fairly predictable, a gradual forward movement of 3-6 weeks per month is to be expected.

FB 2B and FB3.  Forward movement in the 2B category is expected to be 1-2 weeks per month.

FB4.   Forward movement of about one month per month is to be expected.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients.   Although EB-2 is likely to move forward significantly over the next few months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office is prepared to handle the anticipated significant forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories.    Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

Summary of the October 2010 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the October 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by only two (2) weeks to May 22, 2006, while EB-2 India remains unchanged at May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by three (3) weeks to January 8, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by three (3) weeks to November 8, 2003, while EB-3 India  moves forward by two (2) weeks to January 15, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico is now available at April 22, 2001 and EB-3 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to January 8, 2005.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at March 22, 2003 for ROW and China and moves forward by two weeks to January 15, 2002 for India.  Mexico is now available at April 22, 2001 and the Philippines remains unchanged at March 22, 2003.

Summary of the October 2010 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the October 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India move forward by six (6) weeks to February 15, 2006, while FB1 Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks only to December 15, 1992.
• FB2A ROW, China, India and Philippines move forward by four (4) months to April 1, 2010, while FB2A Mexico moves forward by one year to January 1, 2010.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward four (4) months to April 1, 2005, while FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to June 22, 1992.

Forward Movement Continues

The forward movement across many employment and family-based categories continues.  With respect to employment-based petitions, however, the forward movement is fairly small, often only by one or two weeks.  The forward movement in family-based petitions is notable in many cases – four months for many categories.   It is early to make predictions about the movement of the visa numbers over the next fiscal year solely on the basis of the first Visa Bulletin for FY2011.  A positive development, however, is the continued forward movement, albeit small for some categories.

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.

Summary of the September 2010 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the September 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by slightly over two (2) months to May 8, 2006, EB-2 India also moves forward by two (2) months from March 1, 2006 to May 8, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by six and a half (6.5) months to December 15, 2004, EB-3 China  moves forward by one (1) month to October 22, 2003, while EB-3 India  remains unchanged.  EB-3 Mexico remains unavailable.
• The “other worker” category moves forward by a few months, to March 22, 2003 for ROW and China remains unchanged at January 1, 2002 for India.

Substantial Forward Movement Continues

The notable forward movement in EB-2 and some EB-3 categories continues in this month’s visa bulletin as well.   This significant movement is due to the fact that there are some visa numbers available from other countries have not been reached yet and such countries’ per-country limit has not been reached.  As a result, as we are getting close to the end of the fiscal year, and after taking the worldwide demand into account, the State Department is attempting to allocate all of the available visa numbers which, if not allocated, may remain unused during the fiscal year.

Forward Movement Is Temporary

We wish to reiterate that the substantial forward movement  over the past three visa bulletins does not indicate a trend; instead, the last three visa bulletins’ forward movement was to ensure that no available visa numbers remain unused due to poor allocation of the unused numbers.  We expect that there be some retrogression over the next 1-3 months.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 adjustment application, should your priority date become current.

Summary of the August 2010 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the August 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World) remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by slightly over three (3) months to March 1, 2006, EB-2 India moves forward by five (5) months from October 1, 2005 to March 1, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by nine and a half months (9.5) months to June 1, 2004, EB-3 China  moves forward by slightly over one (1) month to September 22, 2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by slightly over one (1) month to January 1, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico remains unavailable.
• The “other worker” category moves forward by a few months, to May 15, 2002 for ROW and China and to January 1, 2002 for India.

Substantial Forward Movement Continues

The notable forward movement in EB-2 and some EB-3 categories continues in this month’s visa bulletin as well.   This significant movement is due to the fact that there are some visa numbers available from other countries have not been reached yet and such countries’ per-country limit has not been reached.  As a result, as we are getting close to the end of the fiscal year, and after taking the worldwide demand into account, the State Department has determined only 8,100 of the total available EB-2 preference numbers would be used in that quarter.   In this case, the unused 3,500 numbers could then be made available to China-mainland born and India regardless of their per-country limits.

Forward Movement Is Temporary

Note that the substantial forward movement  does not indicate a trend; instead, the last two visa bulletins’ forward movement was to ensure that no available visa numbers remain unused due to poor allocation of the unused numbers.  We expect that there be some retrogression over the next 1-3 months.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 adjustment application, should your priority date become current.

Summary of the July 2010 Visa Bulletin

Below is a summary of the July 2010 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China remains unchanged at November 22, 2005, and, most notably, EB-2 India moves forward by ten (10) months from February 1, 2005 to October 1, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost two (2) months to August 15, 2003, EB-3 China also moves forward by almost two (2) months to August 15, 2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) month to November 22, 2001.  EB-3 Mexico remains unavailable.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001 with the exception of Mexico which is  unavailable.

Finally Movement in EB-2 India

Previously we wrote about the lack of movement in the EB-2 India category for the past four months.  Finally, there is a substantial forward movement in EB-2 India which should benefit at least some of our clients and readers.  Please do not hesitate us if you have any questions or if we can help you prepare and file your I-485 adjustment application.

The State Department added another country to the list of oversubscribed countries – Dominican Republic.  This means that for all family and employment-based categories, there is now a category for the Dominican Republic, in addition to China (mainland-born), India, Mexico and the Philippines.

Summary of the June 2010 Visa Bulletin

Below is a summary of the June 2010 Visa Bulletin:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by one (2) months to November 22, 2005, and EB-2 India remains unchanged at February 1, 2005.  This is the third month in a row when EB-2 India has remained unchanged.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost two (2) months to June 22, 2003, EB-3 China moves forward also by two (2) months to June 22,  2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 22, 2001.  EB-3 Mexico remains unavailable.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001 with the exception of Mexico which is now unavailable.

Why Does EB-2 India Not Move?

Our readers and clients have asked us what is the cause of the lack of movement in the EB-2 India category.  Over the past few years, with the severe retrogression of EB-3 India, many Indian nationals have been able to start and obtain an approval of a new I-140 under the EB-2 category.  Our office has handled a number of such EB-3 to EB-2 “upgrade” cases.  As a result, many of the EB-3 India applicants are now EB-2 India applicants, resulting in delay in the movement of EB-2 India priority dates.   We would be happy to analyze your EB-3 case and help you if you can “port” it to EB-2 – please contact us for a free initial consultation.

Here is a summary of the May 2010 Visa Bulletin:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by one (1) month to September 22, 2005, and EB-2 India remains unchanged at February 1, 2005.  This is the second month in a row when EB-2 India has remained unchanged.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost three (3) months to April 22, 2003, EB-3 China moves forward also by almost (3) months to April 22,  2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 1, 2001.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001 with the exception of Mexico which is now unavailable.

Here is a summary of the April 2010 Visa Bulletin:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW remains current, EB-2 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to August 22, 2005, and EB-2 India remains unchanged at February 1, 2005.
• EB-3 ROW moves forward by almost fix (6) weeks to February 1, 2003, EB-3 China moves forward also by six (6) weeks to February 1, 2003, while EB-3 India moves forward by over two (2) months to September 8, 2001.
• Other worker visa numbers remains unchanged at June 1, 2001.