June 2012 Visa Bulletin – EB-2 India and China Unavailable; EB-1 and EB-2 ROW Cutoff Dates Possible

The U.S. State Department has just released the June 2012 Visa Bulletin which is the ninth Visa Bulletin for the FY2012 fiscal year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the unavailability in the EB-2 India and China categories, the significant (four months) advancement in EB-3 China,  the continued forward movement in FB-1 and the possibility of a cutoff date for EB-1/EB-2 ROW.

Summary of the June 2012 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the June 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China are unavailable.
• EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Mexico move forward by five (5) weeks to June 8, 2006.  EB-3 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to May 22, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by more than four (4) months to August 8, 2005, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to September 15, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by five (5) weeks for ROW and Mexico, while EB-3 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to May 22, 2006.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to September 15, 2002.

Summary of the June 2012 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the June 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB-1 moves forward (again, for ninth consecutive month).  FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by seven (7) weeks to June 22, 2005.   FB-1 Mexico remains unchanged at May 15, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines remains unchanged at July 1, 1997.
• FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to January 1, 2010 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB-2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) weeks to December 8, 2009.
• FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by seven (7) weeks to April 15, 2004.  FB-2B Mexico moves forward by one (1) month to January 1, 1992 and FB-2B Philippines remains unchanged at December 8, 2001.

Unavailability in EB-2 India and China Caused by High Demand/Number of Filings; No Forward Movement (or Approvals) Expected Until at Least October 2012; Slow Movement  for EB-3; Continued Forward Movement in FB-1

One of the major headlines this month, in the ninth Visa Bulletin for the Fiscal Year 2012 is the unavailability in the EB-2 India and China categories.  This follows the dramatic retrogression in the previous, May 2012, Visa Bulletin.   Although this unavailability does not come as a surprise to our clients and readers who may have seen our repeated alerts over the past few weeks, the unavailability would certainly cause disappointment to many I-485 Indian or Chinese applicants.

As many of our clients and readers remember, the May 2012 Visa Bulletin indicated a significant retrogression for EB-2 India and China.   Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive.  Such demand is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the Employment Third preference category, and are now eligible to be upgraded to Employment Second preference status.   Unfortunately, the potential amount of such “upgrade” demand is not currently being reported, but, according to the Department of State,  it was evident that the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India was being jeopardized.  Therefore, the Department of State had to make the China and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early April and is expected to remain so until October 1.

In addition to the notable EB-2 India and China columns, this Visa Bulletin also shows continued forward movement in the FB-1 category which has been moving steadily for the past several months.    We continue to see the FB-2A category move forward, although by not as much as we saw for the last few months and after the significant retrogression during the months before.

EB-2 India and China Predictions

According to the Department of State, the EB-2 India and China categories will remain unavailable for the rest of the fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2012.   The first visa bulletin for the new fiscal year, starting on October 1, should be published somewhere around September 10-15th.

All indications are that visa numbers will once again become available for EB-2 India and China.   However, the Department of State, in an explicit note in the June 2012 Visa Bulletin warns that although they will make every attempt to move the cutoff dates back to May 1, 2010, it may take until Spring of 2013 to do so.

EB-1 and EB-2 Rest of World (ROW) May Be Limited by Introducing a Cutoff Date

The Department of State has reiterated their comment from the May 2012 Visa Bulletin that it is possible that a cutoff date may be introduced for EB-1 and EB-2 ROW cases.    The reason is, not surprisingly, the heavy demand in numbers over the past few months, mainly by EB-2 India and China applicants.     Based on the current rate of demand, according to the Department of State, it may be necessary to establish a cutoff date for the EB-1 and/or EB-2 ROW categories.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the June 2012 Visa Bulletin.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

Annual Visa Limit for EB-2 India and China Reached – No New GC Approvals until October 1, 2012

Our office has been able to confirm what we have suspected for a few weeks.  Many of our readers are aware that the significant forward movement in the cutoff dates for the EB-2 India and China categories over the past few months has caused a significant number of demand and I-485 filings.     USCIS has been able to approve a number of I-485 adjustment of status applications for nationals of India and China — as a result, as of April 11, 2012, the Department of State has reached the annual limit in the EB-2 India and China categories.

No Green Card Approvals Until October 1, 2012

As a result of reaching the annual limit in the visa numbers in the EB-2 India and China categories, no new green cards numbers will be authorized by the Department of State for this fiscal year.   Starting October 1, 2012, when the new fiscal year starts (and the quotas reset), the government will continue processing and approving pending cases.

Pending I-485 Cases Unaffected; New I-485 Cases Can Still be Filed

Even though no new green card numbers will be authorized (and green cards approved), pending I-485 cases will remain unaffected — they will be subject to preadjudication and will remain pending until a visa number becomes available.   Additionally, applicants who have current priority dates as of the April and May 2012 Visa Bulletin would still be able to file I-485 adjustment of status applications.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about this alert or the May 2012 Visa Bulletin.  Finally, if you already haven’t already, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

May 2012 Visa Bulletin – EB-2 India and China Retrogress to August 15, 2007; Possibility for EB-2 India and China to Become “Unavailable” and for EB-2 ROW Cutoff Date

The U.S. State Department has just released the May 2012 Visa Bulletin which is the eighth Visa Bulletin for the FY2012 fiscal year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the significant retrogression in EB-2 India and China, the continued forward movement in FB-1, the possibility of a cutoff date for EB-2 ROW and the possibility that EB-2 India and China would become unavailable for the rest of the fiscal year.

Summary of the May 2012 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the May 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move back, or retrogress, by two years and nine and a half months to August 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to May 1, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by one (1) month to April 1, 2006, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to September 8, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to May 1, 2006.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to September 8, 2002.

Summary of the May 2012 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the May 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB-1 moves forward (again, for eighth consecutive month).  FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by one (1) month to May 1, 2005.   FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to May 15, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) week to July 1, 1997.
• FB-2A moves forward by five  (5) weeks to November 15, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to October 15, 2009.
• FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to February 22, 2004.  FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992 and FB-2B Philippines remains unchanged at December 8, 2001.

Retrogression in EB-2 India and China Caused by High Demand/Number of Filings; No Forward Movement Expected Until at Least October 2012; Slow Movement  for EB-3; Continued Forward Movement in FB-1

One of the major headlines this month, in the eighth Visa Bulletin for the Fiscal Year 2012 is the retrogression in the EB-2 India and China cutoff dates — all the way back to August 15, 2007.   Although this retrogression should not come as a surprise to our clients and readers who may have seen our repeated alerts over the past few weeks, the retrogression would certainly cause disappointment to many I-485 Indian or Chinese applicants.

Unfortunately, the number of filings and our predictions for the Visa Bulletins for the rest of the year (see below) suggest that there should not be any forward movement expected in EB-2 India and China for the rest of the fiscal year (until the October 2012 Visa Bulletin).   At the same time, EB-3 continues steady (but slow) forward movement, especially EB-3 India which has been advancing by only one week per month for months.  EB-3 India is expected to continue its (very) slow movement.

This Visa Bulletin also shows continued forward movement in the FB-1 category which has been moving steadily for the past several months.    We continue to see the FB-2A category move forward, although by not as much as we saw for the last few months and after the significant retrogression during the months before.

EB-2 India and China:  USCIS to Continue Accepting I-485 Applications for Adjustment of Status; Pending I-485 Will be Preadjudicated

Despite this retrogression in the EB-2 India and China categories,  USCIS will continue to accept for the rest of the month of April new I-485 applications for adjustment of status for Indian and Chinese nationals with priority dates prior to the date established in the April 2012 Visa Bulletin.

Those filed and pending I-485 cases with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later, should not see any approvals over the next few months.   Instead, those cases will be processed by USCIS to the point of approval (pre-adjudicated) and a request for a visa number will be forwarded to Visa Control at the Department of State to be held in a “pending” file until new visas are available beginning with FY2013 on October 1, 2012.

Visa Bulletin Cutoff Date Predictions

The May 2012 Visa Bulletin also provides some predictions on the movement of the cutoff dates for the next few months (presumably for the rest of the fiscal year).

Employment-based Categories

• EB-1 – expected to remain current;
• EB-2 ROW – there is a potential that EB-2 ROW  may require a cutoff to be established due to decrease in the number of available visa numbers for the fiscal year;
• EB-2 India and China – no forward movement, possibility to become “Unavailable,” effectively stopping all approvals for EB-2 India and China immigrant cases;
• EB-3 ROW – three to five weeks at a time;
• EB-3 China – up to six weeks;
• EB-3 India – up to two weeks; and
• EB-3 Mexico and Philippines – up to five weeks.

Family-based Categories

• FB-1 – four to six weeks at a time;
• FB-2A – up to two and half months;
• FB-2B – three to six weeks;
• FB-3 – three to six weeks; and
• FB-4 – three to five weeks.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the May 2012 Visa Bulletin.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

EB-2 India and China Cutoff Dates Moved (“Internally”) Back to August 15, 2007; I-485 Filings Still Possible

We have written extensively over the past few weeks about the upcoming retrogression in the EB-2 India and China categories.   So, it should not come as a surprise that the Department of State has confirmed what we have anticipated and expected for a couple of weeks — namely, that the Department of State has “internally” moved back the cutoff dates for EB-2 India and China to August 15, 2007.

Department of State Confirms EB-2 India and China “Internal” Retrogression Even Before the Official May 2012 Visa Bulletin is Released

Mr. Charlie Oppenheim, the Chief of Visa Control at the State Department, has confirmed that, effective March 23, 2012, no further EB-2 visas will be authorized for China-mainland born and India applicants with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later.  It should be noted that immigrant visa applicants processing in the month of April at consulates abroad will still receive visas, as those numbers were allocated before the cut-off date was established.

USCIS to Continue Accepting I-485 Applications for Adjustment of Status; Pending I-485 Will be Preadjudicated

Despite this “internal” retrogression, Mr. Oppenheim has confirmed that USCIS will continue to accept for the rest of the month of April new I-485 applications for adjustment of status for Indian and Chinese nationals with priority dates prior to the date established in the April 2012 Visa Bulletin.

Those filed and pending I-485 cases with priority dates of August 15, 2007, or later, should not see any approvals over the next few months.   Instead, those cases will be processed by USCIS to the point of approval (pre-adjudicated) and a request for a visa number will be forwarded to Visa Control at DOS to be held in a “pending” file until new visas are available beginning with FY2013 on October 1, 2012.

Conclusion

Many EB-2 India and China I-485 applicants will be disappointed by the fact that no new I-485 approvals will come for at least several months.   However, the fact that EB-2 India and China cutoff dates moved so significantly over the past several months has allowed many applicants to file their (and their families’) I-485 applications.   Among the immediate benefits of an I-485 filing are advance parole and work permit documents, in addition to ability to port a pending I-485 to a new employer under AC21.

As we enter the last 20-25 days of the current cutoff dates, we urge those EB-2 India and China applicants who are eligible to file their I-485s due to a current (as of the April 2012 Visa Bulletin) priority date to aim to do so as soon as possible and in any case before the end of the month.    Please contact us if we can be of any assistance in the process.

Charles Oppenheim: EB-2 India and China Cutoff Date Expected to Retrogress to August 2007

Only a day after we published our own predictions for the outlook of EB-2 India and China cutoff dates over the next few months, Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State and also known as the person responsible for the Visa Bulletin cutoff dates movement, has provided his own thoughts on the movement of EB-2 India and China.

EB-2 India and China Expected to Retrogress to August 2007

During an AILA event today, March 16, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he will likely retrogress India and China Employment-Based Second Preference (EB-2) cutoff dates to around August 2007, effective with either the May or June 2012 Visa Bulletin.   He also advised that he projects that all EB-1 visas available in FY2012 will be used this year, resulting in no “spilldown” to EB-2.

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments confirm our own predictions that a slowdown or retrogression in EB-2 India/China is imminent.   As a result of this, we urge all EB-2 India and China applicants who have a current priority date as of the March or April 2012 Visa Bulletin to immediately consider filing for an I-485 application.   It is likely that this window of filing opportunity for many EB-2 India and China applicants will close starting May 1st.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if our office can help you take advantage of this significant forward movement in the cutoff dates.    We are also happy to provide a free quote for preparing and filing your I-485 application.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the current  Visa Bulletin or our thoughts about cutoff dates for the next few months.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

EB-2 India and China Prediction and Outlook for the Rest of the Fiscal Year

Our office has actively monitored the Visa Bulletin developments for the past several months, not only by analyzing each Visa Bulletin but also by seeking input from other sources such as demand data, economy and unemployment and, most importantly,  by consulting with Mr. Charles Oppenheim (Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State and also known as the person responsible for the Visa Bulletin cutoff dates movement) when we have had the opportunity to do so.

Throughout the past few months we have been able to assist many clients in preparing and filing their I-485 adjustment of status applications or in processing their immigrant visas through the National Visa Center.    One of the most common questions we get from current and prospective clients is, “How are the cutoff dates for EB-2 India/China going to move in next month’s Visa Bulletin?”   This is especially true after the most recent Visa Bulletin, the April 2012 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this week showing no movement in the EB-2 India/China categories.

EB-2 India/China Category Outlook — No Major Forward Movement, Possible Retrogression

Before we share our own thoughts on the EB-2 India/China outlook, an important disclaimer is necessary.   This is our own opinion and estimate.  It is based on our first hand experience in analyzing the Visa Bulletin for months/years,  by talking with other stakeholders and by gathering official and unofficial public information from Department of State and Citizenship and Immigration Service.    There are so many factors and datapoints (many of which we non-public information) that go into determining the cutoff dates, that we may simply be wrong in our assumptions.

With this in mind, we think that the cutoff dates for EB-2 India and China would remain steady for the rest of the fiscal year (ending on September 30).   Judging by a note published as part of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin and by comments by Charles Oppenheim from January 19, 2012, it seems that the forward movement in EB-2 India and China for this fiscal year is coming to an end.    Mr. Oppenheim had indicated that if visa number demand (I-485 and NVC case filings) continues to be strong over January, February and March, he would need to hold the movement and, possibly, retrogress.

Given the fact that there has been notable demand, indicated by I-485 filings, and given that Mr. Oppenheim has decided to keep the April 2012 Visa Bulletin unchanged for EB-2 India and China, it may be assumed that Mr. Oppenheim has seen sufficient number of filings in order to ensure that no visa numbers go unused for the remainder of the fiscal year.     While it is possible some additional forward movement over the next few Visa Bulletin editions, such movement in EB-2 India/China, if any, is likely to be very small.

Current Priority Date?

Given the possibility of slowdown and/or retrogression in the EB-2 India/China cutoff dates, our office stands ready to assist in the applicable process to take advantage of the recent significant forward movement in the cutoff dates across many of the categories, including applicants in EB-2 India and EB-2 China.   Those applicants whose priority dates are current as of the April 2012 Visa Bulletin may be eligible to process their (and their family members’) I-485 Adjustment of Status applications from within the U.S. or process their immigrant visa at a U.S. Consulate abroad.   Please do not hesitate to contact us if our office can help you take advantage of this significant forward movement in the cutoff dates.    We are also happy to provide a free quote for preparing and filing your I-485 application.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the April 2012 Visa Bulletin or our thoughts about cutoff dates for the next few months.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

April 2012 Visa Bulletin – EB-2 India and China Unchanged; Slow Movement in EB-3; FB-1 Advances Again; Moderate Movement in FB2A

March 2012 Visa Bulletin – EB-2 India and China Advance by Four Months; Slow Movement in EB-3; FB-1 Advances Again; Moderate Movement in FB2A

Visa Bulletin Updates and Predictions by Charles Oppenheim (January 19, 2012)

Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State.  For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate that Mr. Oppenheim has shared his first-hand knowledge of the demand in the employment-based green card categories and has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

The main points are that due to lower than anticipated demand in EB filings, EB-2 India and China cutoff dates may move forward by another 6 months in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin, and then slow down (or even retrogress) over the summer.   The slow demand in EB-1 is expected to continue this year as well.

Observations of the Demand in Employment-based Visa Numbers

Unexpectedly Low EB-2 Usage and Rate of Filings.  The employment-based (EB) visa number usage has been very slow in FY2012; as a result, the Department of State (DOS) is moving the dates forward to see how many cases are out there waiting to be filed.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he is relying on USCIS and their estimates of the incoming EB I-485 cases (because 85 to 90% of all EB filings are I-485s filed with USCIS).  It seems that USCIS had anticipated a higher demand — the rate of I-485 adjustment of status (AOS) filings has been only 50% of their estimates.

EB-1 Demand Low.   Mr. Oppenheim assumes low usage of EB-1 numbers again this year.  A “fall-down” of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim’s projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers “spill up” to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.     Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers –  possible reasons are the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1 EA numbers.

EB Visa Bulletin Predictions for 2012

March 2012 Visa Bulletin.   According to Mr. Oppenheim, employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March 2012 Visa Bulletin, very likely by at least a few months.    An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely.    Mr. Oppenheim noted that given current AOS processing times of 4-6 months, filing AOS in March is the last time to get a case possibly approved before the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2012.

Spring, Summer and rest of FY2012. After some movement in the March (and possibly the April 2012 Visa Bulletin), Mr. Oppenheim expects to hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance, as needed and as determined by demand over the summer.  Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data at this time to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients.   Although EB-2 is likely to continue to move forward over the next one or two months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office has been very active and aggressive in preparing and timely filing I-485 adjustment of status applications for clients who have become “current” over the past few months.   We will continue to be ready to handle the anticipated forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories.    Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions.  We are also happy to provide a free quote for preparing and filing your I-485 application.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.

February 2012 Visa Bulletin – EB-2 India and China Advance by Twelve Months; Slow Movement in EB-3; FB-1 Advances Again; Moderate Movement in FB2A